Independent computational study · CHEMBL220 · October 2026

Structure →
potency.

AChE molecular machine learning built around a simple question: how much of acetylcholinesterase inhibitory potency can be recovered from molecular structure — and what changes when the representation, model, and chemical validation strategy change?

AChE project architecture
CHEMBL220target
IC50 → pIC50endpoint
1,038combined features
915held-out test molecules
0scaffold overlap
01Biology

Start with the enzyme, not the algorithm.

Acetylcholinesterase is a serine hydrolase responsible for the rapid hydrolysis of acetylcholine. Its catalytic activity regulates the lifetime of acetylcholine in cholinergic signalling, making AChE an established molecular target for modulation of cholinergic signalling.

acetylcholine — AChE → choline + acetate
Biological context used by the study: the computational target is quantitative AChE inhibitory potency, not therapeutic efficacy.

The QSAR problem

Medicinal-chemistry collections contain molecules with experimentally measured activities. QSAR modelling asks whether information encoded by molecular structure can explain or predict variation in those measurements.

The boundary

This project predicts a curated AChE potency label. It does not establish cellular efficacy, pharmacokinetics, toxicity, selectivity, blood–brain-barrier penetration, or clinical benefit.

External target resources: UniProt ACHE_HUMAN · ChEMBL
02Dataset

8,793 observations. One target. Many experimental origins.

The raw data are literature-derived ChEMBL activity records associated with human acetylcholinesterase, CHEMBL220. The dataset should therefore be understood as an aggregation of measurements across assays and sources, not as one homogeneous experiment.

8,793

Raw activity records in the retrieved snapshot.

7,179

Unique molecule ChEMBL identifiers before the full curation sequence.

1,020

Unique assay ChEMBL identifiers in the raw snapshot.

Why curation is part of the model.

Changing units, molecular identity, duplicate handling, relation qualifiers, or potency cutoffs changes the target distribution the learner sees. The cohort is therefore treated as a scientific object that must be traceable.

98.97%raw rows in nM
500 nMmedian final IC50
6.3010median final pIC50
10,000 nMupper activity threshold
03Curation

Every discarded row has a reason.

Scroll horizontally through the actual curation sequence. The endpoint is not simply “the cleaned dataset”; it is a documented chain of transformations.

01 / RETRIEVAL

Raw ChEMBL

Target-selected IC50 records for CHEMBL220.

8,793 rows
02 / VALIDITY

Validity + null handling

Initial validity and required-field filtering.

8,793 → 8,072
03 / STRUCTURE

Salt removal

Canonicalized molecular structure after salt/fragment processing.

8,072 → 8,072
04 / IDENTITY

InChIKey

Structure identity generated for grouping and duplicate handling.

8,072 → 8,072
05 / DUPLICATES

Potential duplicates

Potential duplicate records removed before unit processing.

8,072 → 7,248
06 / UNITS

Unit support

Unsupported activity units excluded.

7,248 → 7,185
07 / NORMALIZE

IC50 normalization

Supported values mapped to a common nM scale.

7,185 → 7,185
08 / TARGET

pIC50

IC50 values transformed to the logarithmic potency scale.

7,185 → 7,185
09 / REPLICATES

MAD filter

Within-group robust outlier handling for replicate measurements.

7,185 → 7,110
10 / EXACT DUPLICATES

Exact duplicate removal

Remaining exact duplicates removed.

7,110 → 6,387
11 / RELATION

“=” only

Non-equality relation qualifiers excluded from the quantitative regression cohort.

6,387 → 5,695
12 / CUTOFF

Potency threshold

Final cohort restricted to positive IC50 ≤ 10,000 nM.

5,695 → 4,571
↔ drag / shift-scroll to inspect the full curation chain

The attrition, at a glance.

8,793
8,072
7,248
7,185
7,110
6,387
5,695
4,571

Final potency range

pIC50 spans 4.9208–10.9606, with median 6.3010 and SD 1.1267.

Audit result: the current code uses normalized IC50_nM for the 10,000 nM threshold. The forensic comparison found zero differently classified rows versus the raw-value expression in this saved snapshot.
04Representation

The same molecule, three ways to tell a model what matters.

Representation is not an implementation detail. It determines what structural information is even available to the learner.

REPRESENTATION A
1024

Morgan

Radius-2 circular fingerprints expose local atom environments and recurring substructure patterns.

hashed binary vector · 4092 unique fingerprints
REPRESENTATION B
14

RDKit descriptors

Global structural proxies: molecular weight, logP, HBD/HBA, TPSA, charge, rings, rotatable bonds and related quantities.

continuous / scalar molecular properties
REPRESENTATION C
1038

Combined

Local substructure information and global physicochemical information are concatenated into one classical feature space.

1024 Morgan + 14 descriptors

What Morgan gives you

Local circular environments can be highly useful for analogue-series learning. The trade-off is that the 1,024-bit hash is not a complete molecular description and can collide distinct environments.

What descriptors add

Descriptors expose global quantities that are not directly represented by a binary substructure fingerprint. They are structural proxies, not direct measurements of binding affinity.

05Validation

The test set was separated by chemistry, not just by row number.

Bemis–Murcko scaffolds were used to keep scaffold groups together. The saved partition contains 3,656 training molecules and 915 held-out test molecules, with zero scaffold overlap.

3,656training molecules
915test molecules
1,191train scaffolds
915test scaffolds
Scaffold train-test split
Scaffold allocation saved with the project.
Important: the implementation sorts scaffolds by descending group size and fills the training partition first. The resulting test set is dominated by singleton scaffolds. This prevents scaffold overlap, but it is not a balanced or random scaffold sample. Conclusions must remain tied to this held-out partition.
06Models

Three ensemble families. Nine classical experiments.

Random Forest, XGBoost and LightGBM were each tested with Morgan, descriptors and combined features. Hyperparameters were selected with the saved Optuna workflow under scaffold-grouped validation.

ModelRepresentationTest MAERMSER²PearsonSpearmanCV MAE
Random ForestMorgan0.70530.88400.38890.63250.63720.6854
Random ForestDescriptors0.71860.89830.36900.61550.59490.7202
Random ForestCombined0.69850.87180.40580.64760.64460.6812
XGBoostMorgan0.62310.82400.46910.69050.67650.6042
XGBoostDescriptors0.66130.85680.42590.65330.62910.6993
XGBoostCombined0.60450.79810.50200.71090.69350.5974
LightGBMMorgan0.65300.85600.42710.66250.65580.6347
LightGBMDescriptors0.67800.87750.39790.63400.60820.7141
LightGBMCombined0.63120.82230.47120.68850.67460.6313
Best combined · XGBoost
0.6045

MAE in pIC50 on the original held-out test partition.

Combined · LightGBM
0.6312

Second strongest combined-feature classical result.

Combined · Random Forest
0.6985

Third combined-feature classical result.

07Graph ML

Then the molecule stops being a bit-vector.

The GNN stage represents the molecule explicitly as a graph. Seven categorical atom features and thirteen edge channels are processed through three message-passing steps, then combined with the same 14 global descriptors used by the classical descriptor experiments.

7 atom features
embeddings
→
128 hidden
projection
→
3 × message passing
GRU · residual · norm
→
mean + max pooling
+ 14 descriptors → MLP

Nodes

Atomic number, degree, formal charge, hybridization, aromaticity, hydrogen count and ring membership.

Edges

13 channels covering bond type, conjugation, aromaticity, ring membership and stereochemical indicators, with directed message edges.

Training

AdamW · 0.001 learning rate · 0.0001 weight decay · Smooth L1 · clipping 5 · early stopping patience 20 · seed 50.

GNN diagnostics
Saved GNN diagnostics.

0.6908 pIC50 MAE

The saved GNN reached RMSE 0.9093, R² 0.3535 and Pearson r 0.6225 on the scaffold-held-out test partition. Best validation MAE was 0.6507 at epoch 48; training stopped at epoch 68.

Terminology matters: this is a graph-plus-descriptor regressor, not a graph-only model.
08Diagnostics

A model is more than one number.

The repository stores per-model predictions, residuals and diagnostic plots. The figures below make the behaviour of each classical model visible rather than reducing the study to a leaderboard.

Correlation is not accuracy.

For the best original XGBoost model, Pearson correlation is 0.7109 and Spearman correlation is 0.6935, while MAE is 0.6045 and RMSE is 0.7981. The metrics answer different questions; R² is not a percentage accuracy.

09Matched audit

A negative GNN result can still be a useful result.

A dedicated clean audit reserves 548 validation molecules from the original training portion while retaining the same 915-molecule test partition. This makes the classical/GNN comparison more directly comparable.

ModelFeaturesCV MAETest MAERMSER²Pearson
XGBoost · Combined10380.64790.63520.83470.45530.6795
XGBoost · Morgan10240.65690.65100.85190.43260.6648
RF · Combined10380.68750.67640.85070.43410.6644
RF · Morgan10240.69480.68520.86310.41750.6506
GNN · Graph + descriptors34—0.69080.90930.35350.6225
XGBoost · Descriptors140.72760.69690.88920.38180.6188
RF · Descriptors140.73660.71690.89780.36980.6140
0.0556 pIC50: combined XGBoost has lower test MAE than the GNN on this fixed comparison. This does not prove GNNs are intrinsically inferior; it shows that this implemented architecture, training procedure, representation and split did not outperform the matched classical baseline.
10Audit

The uncomfortable parts stay on the page.

The project includes a forensic implementation audit. These findings are part of the research record, not something to hide behind a polished interface.

confirmed · reporting bug

Feature-count metadata

Original metric logs reported dimensions that did not match the selected estimator matrices. The actual model inputs are 1024 Morgan, 14 descriptors and 1038 combined; predictions are unaffected.

confirmed · methodological limitation

Scaffold allocation bias

The size-ordered scaffold allocation creates a singleton-heavy test set. It is leakage-safe but not a balanced scaffold sample.

audit warning

90 disconnected structures

Ninety disconnected structures remain after salt removal in the saved audit. They were not automatically deleted and require chemical inspection.

expression issue · no cohort change

Activity threshold

The current implementation uses normalized IC50_nM. The audit found zero differently classified rows versus the raw-value expression for this snapshot.

documentation correction

13 GNN edge channels

The current GNN implementation has 13 edge-feature channels. Older descriptions that say three are inconsistent with the current code.

validation limitation

Single fixed split

The principal results use a fixed scaffold-held-out partition. Repeated scaffold assignments are needed to quantify performance variability.

11Interpretation

What the study actually demonstrates.

Representation

The saved results support a dataset-specific advantage for combining Morgan local structural information with global RDKit descriptors.

Classical models

XGBoost is the strongest of the three saved combined-feature classical models on the original held-out partition.

Graph learning

The implemented GNN did not outperform the matched classical baselines. That result is informative without implying universal GNN inferiority.

Not “50.2% accuracy”.

The best original model has R² = 0.5020. That is a coefficient of determination, not classification accuracy. The model’s MAE is 0.6045 pIC50, and RMSE is 0.7981. The distinction matters when communicating scientific performance.

12Limits

Where the evidence stops.

01
Dataset heterogeneityMeasurements aggregate multiple experimental sources, assays and laboratories; molecular structure alone does not encode all experimental variation.
02
Endpoint scopeIC50 is an assay-derived potency measure and is not equivalent to a universal thermodynamic binding constant.
03
RepresentationMorgan fingerprints do not explicitly encode 3D conformation, protein interactions, solvent effects or molecular dynamics.
04
ValidationThe saved test partition is fixed and singleton-heavy; repeated or balanced scaffold validation is still needed.
05
Model scopeThe GNN result represents one implemented architecture/configuration, not an exhaustive graph-learning benchmark.
06
Unfinished analysisNo finalized applicability-domain method or formal activity-cliff analysis is claimed in the current study.
13Reproducibility

A repository you can interrogate.

The research record contains source modules, data snapshots, metrics, predictions, Optuna trials, audit tables, model checkpoints and diagnostic figures.

Environment

Python 3.12.3
RDKit 2026.03.4
Pandas 2.3.3
NumPy 2.4.3
scikit-learn 1.9.0
SciPy 1.17.1

Experimental identity

CHEMBL220
IC50 → pIC50
Morgan r2 / 1024
14 descriptors
seed 50

Matched audit

3,108 train
548 validation
915 test
0 scaffold overlap

09 / ARCHIVE IDENTITY

Permanent research record

The released research snapshot is archived on Zenodo and can be cited independently of the GitHub interface.

DOI · 10.5281/zenodo.23191332 ↗
14Future

The next experiment should answer a harder question.

These are directions, not claims of completed work.

Immediate

Clean reproduction

Inspect disconnected structures, correct metadata, normalize threshold expression and reproduce the principal metrics.

Chemical analysis

Explain the errors

Rank residuals, examine nearest-neighbour similarity and test whether activity cliffs concentrate among high-error molecules.

Validation

Repeat the scaffolds

Use repeated or balanced scaffold assignments to quantify how sensitive performance is to test-set composition.

Graph ML

Push the representation

Explore edge encoding, message-passing depth, pooling, descriptor integration, regularization and repeated seeds.

Generalization

External validation

Test on an independent or temporally separated dataset to strengthen claims beyond the current fixed partition.

Long horizon

Structure → mechanism

3D/geometric modelling, protein–ligand interactions, docking-derived information, uncertainty and constrained generative design.

THE FULL RECORD

If the interface raised a question, the report answers it.

The landing page is the visual layer. The scientific report contains the detailed methodology, equations, tables, audit findings, limitations, reproducibility record and future-work analysis.